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Podcasts
09 Mar
Episode 37 – The TransPacific Partnership and its impact on Gas

The Trans Pacific Partnership, a long negotiated freer trade agreement between 12 nations that have shorelines on the Pacific Ocean, has finally surfaced. What are its implications for participants in the natural gas business? Not a lot, it seems, based on my quick review, but...

LNG carrier
16 Dec
TPP and Gas – Much Ado About Nothing?
The Trans Pacific Partnership, a long negotiated freer trade agreement between 12 nations that have shorelines on the Pacific Ocean, has finally surfaced. What are its implications for participants in the natural gas business? Not a lot, it seems, based on my quick review, but you have to read between the lines, so to speak, and you need a good lawyer at your side. After a bit of background, here's 3 initial observations about the TPP and the gas industry. 
Podcasts
11 Nov
Episode 25: LNG Demand and Australia’s Unconventionals

The world of LNG is having one of its occasional bouts of uncertainty, which was the subject of a presentation I recently gave to the DUG Conference in Brisbane. DUG stands for Developing Unconventional Gas, and is a forum devoted specifically to the challenges of...

supply and demand of LNG
03 Aug
LNG Demand, Supply and Australia’s Unconventionals
The world of LNG is having one of its occasional bouts of uncertainty, which was the subject of a presentation I recently gave to the DUG Conference in Brisbane. DUG stands for Developing Unconventional Gas, and is a forum devoted specifically to the challenges of coal seam gas, shale gas, tight gas and other geologic formations that fall into that general category. My role was to set out the macro demand and supply picture for LNG, which is the biggest driver of gas development in Australia. Here's what I said. 
The cupboard is bare - LNG royaties are missing in action.
09 Mar
Australia’s Incredible Shrinking LNG Royalty
 This week's post is from my colleague and friend John Bland, on the topic of taxes and royalties in Queensland's emerging LNG export industry.  Oil prices have been on a tumble for several months now. Since contracted LNG is often priced with reference to oil (unlike LNG available on the spot market, which is based on what buyer and seller agree), it means LNG prices are also falling. But what about the taxes that Australian governments collect from the gas sector? Will those taxes be less than planned?  
March 2015
02 Mar
LNG News and Analysis February 2015
 Here's my analysis of the LNG and natural gas industry news from the month of February, 2015.  

More Pipeline Sales Coming

 Remember how QGC sold off their transmission pipeline for a billion more than anyone expected? Well, no surprise, but the other projects are now contemplating spinning off their pipelines too. I've written about the potential for balance sheet restructuring before, and continued low prices should have a sufficiently nasty impact on industry economics that more and different assets should come to market. There are going to be a need for some creative footwork given the complex ownership structures and tax rules, and the different risk and value trade offs that the owners make about their stake in the assets. However, never underestimate the creativity of the tax and investment banking sectors to figure out creative ways to move assets around to create value. I expect more asset sales activity.
Global oil markets are capsizing with dramatic price falls.
12 Jan
Australia’s New LNG Future: Bright, But Not Pretty
The price of oil has fallen by a further 40% since October, from $85/bbl to below $50/bbl. Indeed, some oil prices in North America (a landlocked market with no ability to export, but competing with imports), have dipped below $40, and Saudi spokespersons have openly reflected on $20/bbl as being within their range of expectation. A whole new range of possibilities now present themselves to test the resolve of market participants in Australia's emerging LNG sector (a product priced in US dollars and linked to the global price of oil). Here's my outlook on the future for Australia's gas industry in light of these dramatic changes.
March 2015
18 Sep
News And Analysis – August 2014
Here's my analysis of the most interesting news about LNG and natural gas from the month of August, 2014 (drawn from my twitter feed @geoffreycann).

Gas, Australia and Market Impacts

The impacts of Australia's natural gas export projects continue to play out. Early in the month the Australia Industry Group issued a study (full disclosure: it was completed by my firm) on the impacts of high gas prices on sectors that use a lot of gas, including agriculture, mining and manufacturing, and it's not good news - these sectors will all experience considerable cost pressures that are hard to avoid, and will reduce country GDP by billions. A number of stakeholders have offered their views. On balance, the economy will be better off as gas exports drive investment and royalties.By capping gas development in Victoria and NSW, state governments have inadvertently given fresh impetus to a new pipeline project to move gas from the Northern Territory to gas hungry eastern markets. Media stories conveniently ignored the possibility that NT gas could end up in Gladstone for export, and that the pipeline would take years to reach fruition, long after the market will have adjusted to new gas prices. It would seem far easier and faster to change the rules to open up gas production.
crystal ball, to help see the future
28 Jul
Only 63% Of My Predictions Come True

On Monday, July 21, the Australia Industry Group (a peak industry association of Australia's manufacturing companies) issued a report prepared by Deloitte on the state of gas prices in Eastern Australia, decrying the terrible situation facing manufacturers whose gas input costs are about to triple,...

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