Blog Categories
07 Jan
Episode 29 – Where is the price of oil going?

Where are oil prices headed? We’ve now had over 18 months of low oil prices, so surely by now the causes of the price crash have dissipated and prices are going to rise back to where they were.Well, think again. In my view, prices are...

21 Oct
Episode 22 – Surviving the Services Recession

Australia's onshore oil and gas services sector is experiencing its very own recession, thanks to gyrating oil and gas prices. And it's going to last a while, if my calculations are correct. I haven't seen conditions this bad since 2008-09 when I worked with transport, fracking, drilling and construction companies...

30 Sep
Episode 21 – Where is Australia on the Oil and Gas Trend Line?

Originally published on July 13, 2015, this story explores how the big and sweeping trends in the global oil and gas industry come home to roost in Australia. It's based partially on Deloitte's recently published annual review of the global sector, which is available here for download.The...

02 Sep
Can fracking contaminate the water table?

Can fracking activities impact the water table? I thought I’d share some of the science behind oil drilling and water tables to demystify this aspect of the oil and gas industry. Oil and gas are usually (but not aways – see oil sands) found below the water table. We know this to be true...

The massive INPEX LNG plant takes shape in Darwin
31 Aug
Where Is The Price of Oil Going?
Where are oil prices headed? We've now had almost a year of low oil prices, so surely by now the causes of the price crash have dissipated and prices are going to rise back to where they were. This would give comfort to oil companies who are suffering with depressed cash flows, to banks concerned about their loan portfolio, to employees worried about their jobs, and to governments who were counting on royalties for the public purse. Well, think again. In my view, prices are not likely to return to the robust numbers of 2014 anytime soon. The underlying drivers that got us to this place have only partially moderated, and there are new forces on the horizon that will bring more pressure to bear on the market. And why would readers of a blog about LNG care about the price of oil? Because LNG is priced in reference to oil.
Trendline Chart
13 Jul
Where Is Australia On The Oil and Gas Trend Line?
Are you wondering how the big and sweeping trends in the global oil and gas industry come home to roost in Australia? Deloitte recently published its annual review of the global sector (full disclosure: I was one of several interviewed for the publication), which is available here for download. The past year has really turned many of the basic assumptions about the industry upside down. But how does Australia fare in this analysis? On the whole, ok but not great. This post puts the big trend lines through the Australian filter. Let's see what comes of it.
Queensland's LNG could be blindsided by any number of unlikely conditions.
16 Mar
Could Queensland’s LNG Sector Be Black Swanned?
Recently, a company approached me with a perplexing problem. They were encountering increasing international skepticism of the viability of Queensland's coal seam gas sector, which was impeding their growth ambitions. In some circles, Queensland's LNG sector is viewed to be in imminent danger of being completely displaced by looming US LNG exports, a situation accerbated by these low oil and gas prices, and low US continental gas prices. Could the three LNG projects find themselves being shut down as soon as the US LNG trade hit the water. Is there a black swan condition just over the horizon? 
March 2015
02 Mar
LNG News and Analysis February 2015
 Here's my analysis of the LNG and natural gas industry news from the month of February, 2015.  

More Pipeline Sales Coming

 Remember how QGC sold off their transmission pipeline for a billion more than anyone expected? Well, no surprise, but the other projects are now contemplating spinning off their pipelines too. I've written about the potential for balance sheet restructuring before, and continued low prices should have a sufficiently nasty impact on industry economics that more and different assets should come to market. There are going to be a need for some creative footwork given the complex ownership structures and tax rules, and the different risk and value trade offs that the owners make about their stake in the assets. However, never underestimate the creativity of the tax and investment banking sectors to figure out creative ways to move assets around to create value. I expect more asset sales activity.
oil price recovery
09 Feb
Where are Oil Prices Going? L-U-V-J
Where is the price of oil going? Oil markets exert such an influence on the price of LNG that oil markets are worth watching (LNG prices being a derivative of oil). Will the price of oil bounce back quickly or sometime in the distant future? How high will it go? And what will happen to LNG prices? Will they bounce back? What factors weigh most heavily on determining the shape of the price recovery? I'm no forecaster, but I do have a view about the future. Read on. 

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